The monthly COVID Economic Recovery Index, developed by researchers at the FIU Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center, is aimed at assisting local policymakers and economic and community development officials in strategy and program development. The Metropolitan Center plans to roll out the index during a webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021.
The index tracks key performance indicators at the county level against state and national statistics, in three categories essential for the recovery of the region: health, economy, and housing.
A score is given to each category based on the level of recovery out of a total of 100 points - a higher score indicates a more positive recovery. The health indicator tracks infection rates, death rates, and vaccination rates. The economy category tracks job loss/gain, wages, monthly job postings, first-time unemployment insurance claimants, and the unemployment rate. The housing category tracks sales activity, evictions, and foreclosures.
“The impact of COVID-19 on our region is unprecedented,” said Ned Murray, associate director of the Jorge M. Pérez FIU Metropolitan Center. “We hope to quantify the impact of the pandemic through this index and guide policymakers in their decisions during the economic recovery.”
The index is currently focused on Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties. All three counties experienced major economic declines in April and July due first to the initial economic shock and then the escalating number of COVID-19 cases in Florida during the summer.
The plan is to extend the index to other major counties in Florida.
The COVID-19 Economic Recovery Index© was supplemented by a quarterly “COVID-19 Economic Recovery: Behind the Numbers” series which provided readers with a deep dive analysis and narrative on employment figures, industry sectors and housing market trends.
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Methodology
The COVID-19 Economic Recovery Index© is designed to track key indicators and measure the status of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic at the county level against state and national statistics. The single index metric is a composite of key health, economic and housing indicators. Due to varying frequencies of data releases published by public and private entities, the Jorge M. Pérez FIU Metropolitan Center offers both monthly and quarterly tracking systems. The monthly index includes 7 key COVID-19 health, economic performance, and housing affordability indicators. The quarterly series provides a deep dive analysis including 15 indicators and narrative on the COVID-19 pandemic, real unemployment, industry sector analysis, and housing market trends.
Calculating the COVID-19 Economic Recovery Index
The calculation of the COVID-19 Economic Recovery Index© involves a four-step process: (1) normalizing the data indicators by placing them on a common scale from 0 to 100 where 0 represents the lowest possible score and 100 represents the highest possible score; (2) averaging rescaled scores together within each of the data indicators of the Index; (3) assigning statistical “weight” for each of the variables where lead and coincident indicators are assigned a greater weight than lag indictors; and (4) adjusting for the selected base period – January 2020 (100 index) measuring heath, economic, and housing affordability activity relative to pre-COVID-19 levels.